Kim's overture does not mean he is changing his strategy, experts say

By Kim Jae-kyoung

South Korea should take a careful, measured approach to inter-Korean talks to avoid being pushed around by Pyongyang, and must not repeat a bad engagement practice, according to experts on North Korea.

They stress that Seoul must not agree to any sanctions-breaking actions to help Pyongyang because Kim Jong-un's rare peace overture does not mean he is changing his strategy and goal of making his country a nuclear power.

High-level inter-Korean talks on the North's participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games and restoring strained bilateral relations will take place at the shared border village of Panmunjeom, Tuesday.

"Seoul should apply a principled approach to any talks with North Korea, and not be too eager to please (Pyongyang)," Tara O, an adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, told The Korea Times.

She said there was a precedent ― the Sunshine Policy ― in which unconditional aid was given to North Korea, only for Pyongyang to prioritize nuclear weapons that threatened South Korea and the international community.

"Thus, there should be no efforts to restart the Sunshine Policy," she said.

The bilateral talks come a week after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced in his New Year address that he was willing to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics, and to hold talks.

What's behind Kim Jong-un's peace overture? 2018-01-07 17:31  |  North Korea
Many experts believe that the talks might calm tension on the peninsula in the short term, but that the talks are unlikely to lead to long-term progress in inter-Korean relations.

Against this backdrop, they said any efforts for rapprochement should neither involve gifts to the North nor weaken the alliance between South Korea and the U.S.

"President Moon Jae-in should not let such a wedge be created and, indeed, if he can, he should turn it back on Kim," said Georgetown School of Foreign Service adjunct professor William Brown.

In Brown's view, it is important at this point to dampen expectations that the talks, or even North Korean participation in the Olympics, will change the dynamics of strategic issues.

"If presented in that way, I don't think there will be trouble with Trump," he said.

"A key condition of North Korean participation should be that Pyongyang allow wide access of its people to South Korean and foreign press coverage of the event. Without that, Kim will only use it for his own propaganda purposes."

The experts said Kim's rare offer for talks indicated that sanctions had started to have an impact on the North Korean economy.

"Kim's reaching out to South Korea could be a sign that sanctions are taking a toll and that he's desperate for cash and assistance wherever he can get it," said Park Strategies Senior Vice President Sean King.

"Kim likely assumes that any talks with the South will lead to the reopening of the Gaesong Industrial Complex and other giveaways like those he got from Moon's liberal predecessors, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun."

On Wednesday, the two Koreas resumed hotline contact for the first time in nearly two years after the North shut it down in February 2016 in retaliation for the South's closure of the Gaeseong complex.

On Thursday, Seoul and Washington agreed to delay joint military exercises until after the Winter Olympics, which will be held from Feb. 9 to 25.